Bryan Norcross: The developing storm, officially named Invest 95L, will impact the Carolinas

Updated at 11 a.m. Eastern Time on Sunday, September 15, 2024

Gray skies, gusty winds, and periods of rain are affecting coastal areas of South Carolina and North Carolina as a low pressure center develops offshore. The low pressure does not have tropical origins, but could develop into a tropical system late today or tomorrow before making landfall, likely in North Carolina.

Air north of the system will be compressed between a strong high pressure over northern New England and developing low pressure. Winds in the trough of compressed air are already reaching 40 mph (64 km/h). If the National Hurricane Center determines that the system has developed some tropical characteristics, it will be named Helene. By definition, a tropical system is separated from any front and at least partially fed by warm ocean waters.

If it is partly tropical and partly nontropical, it will be called Subtropical Storm Helene.

Satellite image of Invest 95L on Sunday morning, September 15, 2024.

(NOAA)

The storm won’t stay over water for long, so it’s not expected to reach hurricane strength, but a couple of days of severe weather are likely along the Carolina coast. And there’s a chance winds just offshore could reach tropical storm strength.

Torrential rainfall is possible tomorrow in northeastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina as the system approaches land. After landfall late tomorrow or early Tuesday, the moisture is likely to spread along the coast through the mid-Atlantic into the Northeast.

Flooding is likely along the coast and around the North Carolina Sounds due to persistent onshore winds and astronomically high tides. Tides are forecast to rise up to 2 feet above normal.

Since the storm is just developing, details and forecast are subject to change, so stay informed along the Carolina coast today and tomorrow.

In the eastern Atlantic, Tropical Storm Gordon will not be moving quickly. It is expected to drift for several days as a weak system. Over time, it could be dragged northward and strengthen in open water.

Invest 95L and Tropical Storm Gordon are the only two systems being tracked in the Atlantic basin.

(National Hurricane Center)

No further phenomena seem likely at this time. As we approach the end of September, our focus is on the western Caribbean and southern Gulf. There are hints of possible phenomena developing from there next week, but nothing to think about yet.