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Democrats’ enthusiasm nearly doubles with Harris in the race
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Democrats’ enthusiasm nearly doubles with Harris in the race

Top line

Vice President Kamala Harris’ entry into the presidential race has nearly doubled enthusiasm among Democratic voters and halved the share of “double haters” who like neither candidate, according to a new poll that could help explain why Harris has erased former President Donald Trump’s lead over President Joe Biden in most surveys.

Key facts

Democratic enthusiasm for the 2024 election has risen to 85% from 46% in June, before Biden dropped out, while enthusiasm among independents has also increased to 53% from 34%, according to a Monmouth University poll of 801 registered voters conducted Aug. 8-12 (margin of error 4) released Wednesday.

Meanwhile, enthusiasm for the election among Republicans has plateaued at 71%.

More Democratic voters (92%) are enthusiastic about Harris as their nominee than Republicans are about Trump (84%), a significant shift from February, when 80% of Republicans were enthusiastic about Trump and 62% of Democrats were enthusiastic about Biden.

The share of so-called “double haters,” who have no favorable opinion of either candidate, has declined from 17% when it comes to Biden and Trump to 8% when it comes to Harris and Trump, while 53% of voters who like neither Biden nor Trump say they will vote for Harris.

In another sign of growing enthusiasm for Harris, voter registration among Democrats in the key states of North Carolina and Pennsylvania outpaced registration among Republican voters in the three weeks after Harris entered the race, after Republicans held the edge every week since February in North Carolina and in all but five weeks in Pennsylvania, according to a New York Times analysis.

Big number

48%. That’s the share of registered voters who said they would definitely or probably vote for Vice President Kamala Harris in November, compared with 43% who said they would definitely or probably vote for Trump, according to Monmouth.

Crucial quote

“This is clearly a different scenario,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, in a news release about the organization’s survey. “The change in candidate has raised the ceiling of potential Democratic support in the presidential race by a small but crucial amount, at least for now.”

Key Background

Harris has slightly edged ahead of Trump in polling averages after polls conducted before she entered the race consistently showed Trump beating Biden. She now leads Trump by 2.9 points in the FiveThirtyEight polling average and by 1.1 points in the Real Clear Politics average. Harris has also outpaced Trump in most key states, according to a poll released Wednesday by Cook Political Report that found her tied or leading in six of seven key states, with the exception of Nevada.

Further reading

Key States Polls For 2024 Election: Harris Leads Trump In Almost Every Key State (Forbes)

What to know about the Democratic National Convention: Obama, the Clintons and Biden will speak (Forbes)

Trump vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Widens Lead In Latest Poll (Forbes)

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