NFL Strength of Schedule Betting Analysis: Which Schedules Offer Value?

A major factor in each NFL season is the varying degree of difficulty each team faces based on the opponents on their schedule.

The true impact of luck on timing is often much more obvious at the end of a season than at the beginning, but it’s always worth examining before a campaign begins.

How are NFL team schedules determined?

Before we move on, let’s explain how NFL schedules work. We’ll use the AFC East and the Bills to explain how a team’s opponents are assigned.

This year, all AFC East teams will face all four AFC South teams, as well as all four NFC West teams. This is based on a league-wide rotation that ensures all teams in all eight NFL divisions face each other at least once every four years.

The four AFC East members’ other nine games include six (two against each of their three division rivals) within their division and another three against teams that finished in the same place in their respective division in 2023.

That’s why the Bills, who won the AFC East last year, not only play their predetermined AFC South and NFC West rivals, but also 2023 NFC North champion Detroit, 2023 AFC North champion Baltimore and 2023 AFC West winner Kansas City.

Given the way league rotation works to determine opponents, it’s important to focus on the divisions a team will face outside of its own.

2024 NFL Division Schedule Breakdown

Below is what the non-division matchups look like for next season.

• AFC East Rivals: AFC South, NFC West
• AFC North Rivals: AFC West, NFC East
• AFC South Rivals: AFC East, NFC North
• AFC West Rivals: AFC North, NFC South
• NFC East Rivals: NFC South, AFC North
• NFC North Rivals: NFC West, AFC South
• NFC South Rivals: NFC East, AFC West
• NFC West Rivals: NFC North, AFC East

NFL Division Rankings by Projected Wins

Any team whose non-divisional schedule includes the NFC South, for example, seemingly has an advantage over any team scheduled to face all teams in a division like the AFC North.

The projected win totals from the bookmakers confirm this. According to bet365’s win totals for the league’s 32 teams, the AFC North is by far the best division. The bookmaker projects the Ravens, Bengals, Browns and Steelers to win a total of around 38 games.

At the other end of the spectrum is the NFC South, where bet365 projects all four teams to perform average or worse. The Falcons, Bucs, Saints and Panthers are all projected to total roughly 30 wins.

According to bet365, below are the division standings for the 2024 season.

The total number of games the four teams in each division are projected to win is in parentheses.

• 1. AFC North (bet365 projection: 38 wins overall)
• 2. NFC North (bet365 projection: 35 total wins)
• 3. NFC East (bet365 projection: 34 wins overall)
• T-3. NFC West (bet365 projection: 34 total wins)
• T-3. AFC East (bet365 projection: 34 wins overall)
• 6. AFC South (bet365 projection: 33 wins overall)
• 7. AFC West (bet365 projection: 32 wins overall)
• 8. NFC South (bet365 projection: 30 total wins)

How to Evaluate the Strength of the NFL Schedule

There are several ways to evaluate a team’s schedule heading into a given season.

It’s understandable that many fans rely on the record and winning percentage of opponents from the previous year. Other methods of calculating the strength of a team’s schedule include looking at the projected win total for the opponent in question.

Will the 2024 Bears (to pick a team that looks very different on paper this year) be the same team that went 7-10 a year ago, or a playoff team?

Preseason odds indicate they are closer to the latter than the former.

Related: Last year’s Houston Texans were the latest great example that a team’s record from the previous year is worth considering, but it doesn’t mean everything.

A year ago, anyone with Houston on their schedule considered it a likely win. That’s because the Texans entered 2023 after three straight seasons with four wins or fewer. But by November, it became clear that Houston, then 6-4, was no pushover.

Respected NFL analytics website Sharp Football Analysis incorporates projected win totals into its strength-of-schedule analysis. This has become one of the most popular strength-of-schedule measures in recent years.

This year, Sharp Football Analysis says the easiest schedules belong to, in order, the Falcons, Chargers, Bears, Jets and Saints.

The teams with the toughest schedules for 2024, according to SharpFootballAnalysis, are the Steelers, Patriots, Browns, Ravens and Vikings.

That makes sense given that the Steelers, Browns and Ravens all play in the brutal AFC North, while the Pats and Vikes are also in tough divisions.

Team to support according to the calendar: Carolina

Panthers win total at bet365:5.5 (more than -130, less than +100)

Obviously, there are no easy wins for a franchise that was 2-15 a year ago, but facing an AFC West that features three beatable teams (with the obvious exception of Kansas City) will help. Carolina also faces at least two NFC East contenders in Philadelphia and Dallas, but hosts the Cowboys at home.

Carolina’s visiting opponents include the Saints, Raiders, Bears, Commanders, Broncos, Eagles, Bucs and Falcons. Of those teams, only the Eagles are projected to win 10+ games, although the Bears, Bucs and Falcons all appear to be teams over .500.

Hosting Cincinnati, Kansas City and Dallas in Charlotte won’t change the Panthers’ status as clear underdogs in those games, but it should improve their chances of a potential upset.

Most importantly, home games against the Chargers, Falcons, Saints, Giants* and Cardinals give this team some winnable matchups, even if a massive improvement from last year’s disaster remains unlikely.

*The Panthers will host the Nov. 10 game against the Giants in Munich.

The team fades according to the calendar: San Francisco

49ers total wins at bet365:11.5 (more than +100, less than -130)

All four NFC West teams have tough schedules thanks to the NFL’s rotation. The 49ers, Rams, Seahawks and Cardinals are matched up with the NFC North and AFC East, two divisions that look impressive on paper.

However, matchups with NFC North favorites Detroit and Green Bay and AFC East contenders Buffalo, New York and Miami aren’t the only tough ones on SF’s schedule.

San Francisco’s rivals outside of the divisions it’s tied with include Kansas City, Dallas and Tampa Bay. This will help the Niners’ chances of facing the Chiefs and Cowboys at home, but this schedule still looks daunting, especially down the stretch.

The 49ers will be heavy favorites in several early-season games, particularly against Minnesota in Week 2 and New England in Week 4. But from Oct. 20 through Dec. 1, San Francisco has a challenging six-game stretch:

• Kansas City (home, Oct. 20)
• Dallas (home, October 27)
• Tampa Bay (visitor, November 10)
• Seattle (home, November 17)
• Green Bay (visitor, November 24)
• Buffalo (away, December 1)

Back-to-back games against the Dolphins in Week 16 and the Lions in Week 17 will also challenge this team.

The Niners’ floor is undoubtedly high, but they’ll have to earn it to achieve three consecutive years with 12 or more regular-season wins.

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