Kamala Harris VP nominee update: New frontrunner emerges ahead of announcement

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz briefly became the front-runner to be the Democrats’ 2024 vice presidential nominee on Tuesday morning, according to a major betting website.

At 3:30 a.m. ET, PredictIt was selling $1 bets on Walz as the vice presidential nominee for 54¢, versus 43¢ for Gov. Josh Shapiro, 4¢ for Gov. Andy Beshear, 3¢ for Sen. Mark Kelly and 1¢ for Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. Each PredictIt bet sells for between 1¢ and 99¢ depending on its probability, and the customer receives $1 if their guess is correct.

By 5 a.m. ET, however, Shapiro had regained the lead on the platform, with a bet that the Pennsylvania governor will complete the Democratic Party’s 2024 ticket selling for 53¢ ahead of Walz at 50¢, Beshear and Kelly at 3¢ each, and 1¢ for Buttigieg. The PredictIt website is run by Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand.

There has been much speculation about who Harris would choose as her running mate since she became the Democrats’ presumptive presidential nominee shortly after President Joe Biden dropped out of the 2024 race and endorsed her. On August 5, Political Harris is reported to be announcing her vice presidential pick on Tuesday ahead of a rally she is scheduled to attend in Philadelphia in the evening.

As of 5 a.m. ET on Tuesday, U.K.-based sportsbook William Hill was offering 8/11 odds (57.9 percent) that Shapiro would be the Democratic vice presidential nominee in 2024, ahead of Walz at 47.6 percent and no other candidate at more than three percent. Elsewhere, betting website Betfair gave 1/2 odds (66.7 percent) that Shapiro would be chosen, with Walz in second place at 11/8 (42.1 percent).

Newsweek Magazine I reached out to Gov. Walz’s press office and representatives for Vice President Kamala Harris for comment Tuesday via email outside of regular business hours.

Reuters reported on Monday that Harris had narrowed her list of vice presidential candidates to just two, Governors Walz and Shapiro.

In a message to supporters urging them to sign up for her vice presidential announcement, Harris said Monday that she had not made a final decision. She said: “I know many of you are eager to hear who I will choose to join me on the campaign trail and, hopefully, in the White House, as my vice president.

“While I haven’t made my decision yet, it’s important to me that grassroots supporters, like you, have direct updates on the status of the race.”

Speaking to Newsweek MagazineThomas Gift, a political scientist who heads the Center for American Politics at University College London, said choosing Shapiro as his running mate would put the key state of Pennsylvania “up for grabs” for Harris.

He said: “While most polls have shown Trump leading Pennsylvania by a non-trivial margin, Harris’s selection of Shapiro puts Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes in play, plain and simple… Even if Trump wins Pennsylvania, choosing Shapiro would force him to expend significantly more resources in the key swing state to do so, diverting valuable money and energy from other battleground states.”

A poll of 1,510 likely voters conducted Aug. 2-4 by SurveyUSA gave Harris a three-point lead over Trump in national vote share, 48 percent to 45 percent.