How Kamala Harris’ running mate can improve her chances

The day after President Joe Biden withdrew from the 2024 presidential race, The Dallas Morning News Editorial Board advised his readers that presumptive Democratic nominee Kamala Harris should choose as her running mate “a moderating voice genuinely prepared to push back against her party’s progressive leanings” to “show the American middle that she hears their concerns.”

Why? Because the November election, like every presidential election in the 21st century, will be decided by independent voters in key swing states who “feel alienated by the policies of the far left and far right and the destructive rhetoric that both sides use” and “are fed up with the hopeless polarization that dominates both parties,” the editorial adds.

Let’s start with Harris’s political positions. Her voting record as a U.S. senator from 2017 to 2021 and her public statements throughout her political career fully support The Wall Street Journal The perception that she is a “standard California progressive, to the left of Biden,” is that, to have any chance of winning most of the key states in November, her vice presidential running mate definitely needs to be a moderate who will bring ideological balance to the ticket.

According to recent media reports, Harris is paying attention News’ Among the finalists being considered are Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz. Their selections could provide a boost to what will be a close election, decided by voters in the seven key states: Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia.

Let’s take one of these presumptive finalists at a time. In her previous two Senate campaigns, Kelly, 60, ran as a political centrist, winning in 2020 (to fill John McCain’s unexpired term after his death) and again in 2022. So she would clearly help Harris in her bid to win Arizona.

He also has a quintessentially “middle-aged American” life story for a vice presidential candidate: his mother and father were police officers, and after graduating magna cum laude from the United States Merchant Marine Academy, he had a distinguished record as a Navy fighter pilot (flying 39 missions in the Gulf War) and as an American astronaut (piloting four space shuttle flights).

Kelly is aligned with Harris on issues such as abortion rights and climate change, though he has criticized the Biden administration’s handling of the border crisis and declined to be a co-sponsor of the Protecting the Right to Organize Act. However, he recently said he supports the legislation.

As the husband of Gabby Giffords (a former Arizona congresswoman who survived an assassin’s bullet) and a gun owner himself, he has taken a middle-of-the-road position on the Second Amendment and has advocated for sensible gun regulation. The only drawback is that Kelly is not a good speaker.

Shapiro, 51, also has a strong case to be a solid choice as a “midterm” candidate. Like Harris, he has been in politics for most of his adult life, serving for seven years as a representative in the Pennsylvania House of Representatives, six years as the state’s attorney general and 18 months as governor.

In his 2022 gubernatorial campaign, he ran as a “moderate” and defeated his Trump-backed Republican opponent by a 15% margin, receiving 16% of the Republican vote. So far, his overall approval rating is 57% among Pennsylvanians, which includes a 42% approval rating among Republicans.

Like Kelly, Shapiro is aligned with Harris on abortion, though his stances on school choice and Israel’s position on the Gaza war are materially different from hers. Unlike Kelly, Shapiro is an influential speaker who would help deliver a victory in Pennsylvania, the most important swing state. However, his staunch support for Israel as a devout Jew is sure to draw the ire of those not aligned with his pro-Israel position, which could hurt Harris’ prospects of winning Michigan.

Walz, 60, has won two terms in a blue state won by Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Biden in 2020. He could be in for a stroke in the nearby swing states of Wisconsin and Michigan. His national profile was raised by his empathetic response to the killing of George Floyd and success in passing police reform legislation. As a former public school teacher and teacher’s union leader, his most dominant political position is being staunchly pro-union. He has experience in the federal government as a congressman for 12 years and military experience as a 24-year veteran of the Army National Guard.

Walz’s most favorable political trait is his ability as a strong-willed “attack dog” public speaker, which would be useful in what will clearly be a close race, although it would not necessarily pay off among “centrist” independent voters who care more about candidates’ positions on issues than how much venom they spew.

After reviewing the political backgrounds and pertinent facts of the three candidates perceived as favorites to win Harris’s vice presidential nominee race, Kelly and Shapiro are essentially tied for first place as the most appealing “middle-of-the-road” options. The fact that Shapiro has different positions than Harris on school vouchers versus teachers unions and Israel’s position on the Gaza war could well break the tie in her mind, thus making Kelly the most likely choice to be the Democratic Party’s vice presidential nominee.

However, given that Pennsylvania has more electoral votes than Arizona, and Harris is now behind Trump in the polls in Pennsylvania and leading Trump in Arizona, assuming she is willing to do whatever it takes to win in November, Shapiro will likely be Kamala Harris’s preferred choice.

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